diff --git a/core/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/IndexService.java b/core/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/IndexService.java
index d3008e2d8cf..0c338ce1873 100644
--- a/core/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/IndexService.java
+++ b/core/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/IndexService.java
@@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ package org.elasticsearch.index;
 import com.google.common.base.Function;
 import com.google.common.collect.ImmutableMap;
 import com.google.common.collect.Iterators;
+
 import org.apache.lucene.util.IOUtils;
 import org.elasticsearch.ElasticsearchException;
 import org.elasticsearch.cluster.metadata.IndexMetaData;
@@ -56,8 +57,10 @@ import org.elasticsearch.plugins.PluginsService;
 
 import java.io.Closeable;
 import java.io.IOException;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
 import java.util.HashMap;
 import java.util.Iterator;
+import java.util.Map;
 import java.util.Set;
 import java.util.concurrent.TimeUnit;
 import java.util.concurrent.atomic.AtomicBoolean;
@@ -314,8 +317,23 @@ public class IndexService extends AbstractIndexComponent implements IndexCompone
                     throw t;
                 }
             }
+
             if (path == null) {
-                path = ShardPath.selectNewPathForShard(nodeEnv, shardId, indexSettings, routing.getExpectedShardSize() == ShardRouting.UNAVAILABLE_EXPECTED_SHARD_SIZE ? getAvgShardSizeInBytes() : routing.getExpectedShardSize(), this);
+                // TODO: we should, instead, hold a "bytes reserved" of how large we anticipate this shard will be, e.g. for a shard
+                // that's being relocated/replicated we know how large it will become once it's done copying:
+
+                // Count up how many shards are currently on each data path:
+                Map<Path,Integer> dataPathToShardCount = new HashMap<>();
+                for(IndexShard shard : this) {
+                    Path dataPath = NodeEnvironment.shardStatePathToDataPath(shard.shardPath().getShardStatePath());
+                    Integer curCount = dataPathToShardCount.get(dataPath);
+                    if (curCount == null) {
+                        curCount = 0;
+                    }
+                    dataPathToShardCount.put(dataPath, curCount+1);
+                }
+                path = ShardPath.selectNewPathForShard(nodeEnv, shardId, indexSettings, routing.getExpectedShardSize() == ShardRouting.UNAVAILABLE_EXPECTED_SHARD_SIZE ? getAvgShardSizeInBytes() : routing.getExpectedShardSize(),
+                                                       dataPathToShardCount);
                 logger.debug("{} creating using a new path [{}]", shardId, path);
             } else {
                 logger.debug("{} creating using an existing path [{}]", shardId, path);
diff --git a/core/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/shard/ShardPath.java b/core/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/shard/ShardPath.java
index 8feed273c4f..c9ebb17fab0 100644
--- a/core/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/shard/ShardPath.java
+++ b/core/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/index/shard/ShardPath.java
@@ -199,7 +199,7 @@ public final class ShardPath {
     }
 
     public static ShardPath selectNewPathForShard(NodeEnvironment env, ShardId shardId, @IndexSettings Settings indexSettings,
-                                                  long avgShardSizeInBytes, Iterable<IndexShard> shards) throws IOException {
+                                                  long avgShardSizeInBytes, Map<Path,Integer> dataPathToShardCount) throws IOException {
 
         final Path dataPath;
         final Path statePath;
@@ -211,7 +211,17 @@ public final class ShardPath {
             statePath = env.nodePaths()[0].resolve(shardId);
         } else {
 
-            Map<Path,Long> estReservedBytes = getEstimatedReservedBytes(env, avgShardSizeInBytes, shards);
+            long totFreeSpace = 0;
+            for (NodeEnvironment.NodePath nodePath : env.nodePaths()) {
+                totFreeSpace += nodePath.fileStore.getUsableSpace();
+            }
+
+            // TODO: this is a hack!!  We should instead keep track of incoming (relocated) shards since we know
+            // how large they will be once they're done copying, instead of a silly guess for such cases:
+
+            // Very rough heurisic of how much disk space we expect the shard will use over its lifetime, the max of current average
+            // shard size across the cluster and 5% of the total available free space on this node:
+            long estShardSizeInBytes = Math.max(avgShardSizeInBytes, (long) (totFreeSpace/20.0));
 
             // TODO - do we need something more extensible? Yet, this does the job for now...
             final NodeEnvironment.NodePath[] paths = env.nodePaths();
@@ -220,10 +230,11 @@ public final class ShardPath {
             for (NodeEnvironment.NodePath nodePath : paths) {
                 FileStore fileStore = nodePath.fileStore;
                 long usableBytes = fileStore.getUsableSpace();
-                Long reservedBytes = estReservedBytes.get(nodePath.path);
-                if (reservedBytes != null) {
-                    // Deduct estimated reserved bytes from usable space:
-                    usableBytes -= reservedBytes;
+
+                // Deduct estimated reserved bytes from usable space:
+                Integer count = dataPathToShardCount.get(nodePath.path);
+                if (count != null) {
+                    usableBytes -= estShardSizeInBytes * count;
                 }
                 if (usableBytes > maxUsableBytes) {
                     maxUsableBytes = usableBytes;