python-peps/pep-0450.txt

PEP: 450
Title: Adding A Statistics Module To The Standard Library
Version: $Revision$
Last-Modified: $Date$
Author: Steven D'Aprano <steve@pearwood.info>
Status: Draft
Type: Standards Track
Content-Type: text/plain
Created: 01-Aug-2013
Python-Version: 3.4
Post-History:


Abstract

    This PEP proposes the addition of a module for common statistics functions
    such as mean, median, variance and standard deviation to the Python
    standard library. See also http://bugs.python.org/issue18606


Rationale

    The proposed statistics module is motivated by the "batteries included"
    philosophy towards the Python standard library.  Raymond Hettinger and
    other senior developers have requested a quality statistics library that
    falls somewhere in between high-end statistics libraries and ad hoc
    code.[1]  Statistical functions such as mean, standard deviation and others
    are obvious and useful batteries, familiar to any Secondary School student.
    Even cheap scientific calculators typically include multiple statistical
    functions such as:

    - mean
    - population and sample variance
    - population and sample standard deviation
    - linear regression
    - correlation coefficient

    Graphing calculators aimed at Secondary School students typically
    include all of the above, plus some or all of:

    - median
    - mode
    - functions for calculating the probability of random variables
      from the normal, t, chi-squared, and F distributions
    - inference on the mean

    and others[2].  Likewise spreadsheet applications such as Microsoft Excel,
    LibreOffice and Gnumeric include rich collections of statistical
    functions[3].

    In contrast, Python currently has no standard way to calculate even the
    simplest and most obvious statistical functions such as mean.  For those
    who need statistical functions in Python, there are two obvious solutions:

    - install numpy and/or scipy[4];

    - or use a Do It Yourself solution.

    Numpy is perhaps the most full-featured solution, but it has a few
    disadvantages:

    - It may be overkill for many purposes.  The documentation for numpy even
      warns

          "It can be hard to know what functions are available in
          numpy.  This is not a complete list, but it does cover
          most of them."[5]

      and then goes on to list over 270 functions, only a small number of
      which are related to statistics.

    - Numpy is aimed at those doing heavy numerical work, and may be
      intimidating to those who don't have a background in computational
      mathematics and computer science.  For example, numpy.mean takes four
      arguments:

        mean(a, axis=None, dtype=None, out=None)

      although fortunately for the beginner or casual numpy user, three are
      optional and numpy.mean does the right thing in simple cases:

          >>>  numpy.mean([1, 2, 3, 4])
          2.5

    - For many people, installing numpy may be difficult or impossible.  For
      example, people in corporate environments may have to go through a
      difficult, time-consuming process before being permitted to install
      third-party software.  For the casual Python user, having to learn about
      installing third-party packages in order to average a list of numbers is
      unfortunate.

    This leads to option number 2, DIY statistics functions.  At first glance,
    this appears to be an attractive option, due to the apparent simplicity of
    common statistical functions.  For example:

        def mean(data):
            return sum(data)/len(data)

        def variance(data):
            # Use the Computational Formula for Variance.
            n = len(data)
            ss = sum(x**2 for x in data) - (sum(data)**2)/n
            return ss/(n-1)

        def standard_deviation(data):
            return math.sqrt(variance(data))

    The above appears to be correct with a casual test:

        >>> data = [1, 2, 4, 5, 8]
        >>> variance(data)
        7.5

    But adding a constant to every data point should not change the variance:

        >>> data = [x+1e12 for x in data]
        >>> variance(data)
        0.0

    And variance should *never* be negative:

        >>> variance(data*100)
        -1239429440.1282566

    By contrast, the proposed reference implementation gets the exactly correct
    answer 7.5 for the first two examples, and a reasonably close answer for
    the third: 6.012. numpy does no better[6].

    Even simple statistical calculations contain traps for the unwary, starting
    with the Computational Formula itself.  Despite the name, it is numerically
    unstable and can be extremely inaccurate, as can be seen above.  It is
    completely unsuitable for computation by computer[7].  This problem plagues
    users of many programming language, not just Python[8], as coders reinvent
    the same numerically inaccurate code over and over again[9], or advise
    others to do so[10].

    It isn't just the variance and standard deviation. Even the mean is not
    quite as straight-forward as it might appear.  The above implementation
    seems too simple to have problems, but it does:

    - The built-in sum can lose accuracy when dealing with floats of wildly
      differing magnitude.  Consequently, the above naive mean fails this
      "torture test":

          assert mean([1e30, 1, 3, -1e30]) == 1

      returning 0 instead of 1, a purely computational error of 100%.
  
    - Using math.fsum inside mean will make it more accurate with float data,
      but it also has the side-effect of converting any arguments to float
      even when unnecessary.  E.g. we should expect the mean of a list of
      Fractions to be a Fraction, not a float.

    While the above mean implementation does not fail quite as catastrophically
    as the naive variance does, a standard library function can do much better
    than the DIY versions.

    The example above involves an especially bad set of data, but even for
    more realistic data sets accuracy is important.  The first step in
    interpreting variation in data (including dealing with ill-conditioned
    data) is often to standardize it to a series with variance 1 (and often
    mean 0).  This standardization requires accurate computation of the mean
    and variance of the raw series.  Naive computation of mean and variance
    can lose precision very quickly.  Because precision bounds accuracy, it is
    important to use the most precise algorithms for computing mean and
    variance that are practical, or the results of standardization are
    themselves useless.


Comparison To Other Languages/Packages

    The proposed statistics library is not intended to be a competitor to such
    third-party libraries as numpy/scipy, or of proprietary full-featured
    statistics packages aimed at professional statisticians such as Minitab,
    SAS and Matlab.  It is aimed at the level of graphing and scientific
    calculators.

    Most programming languages have little or no built-in support for
    statistics functions.  Some exceptions:

    R
        R (and its proprietary cousin, S) is a programming language designed
        for statistics work. It is extremely popular with statisticians and
        is extremely feature-rich[11].

    C#

        The C# LINQ package includes extension methods to calculate the
        average of enumerables[12].

    Ruby

        Ruby does not ship with a standard statistics module, despite some
        apparent demand[13].  Statsample appears to be a feature-rich third-
        party library, aiming to compete with R[14].

    PHP

        PHP has an extremely feature-rich (although mostly undocumented) set
        of advanced statistical functions[15].

    Delphi

        Delphi includes standard statistical functions including Mean, Sum,
        Variance, TotalVariance, MomentSkewKurtosis in its Math library[16].

    GNU Scientific Library

        The GNU Scientific Library includes standard statistical functions,
        percentiles, median and others[17].  One innovation I have borrowed
        from the GSL is to allow the caller to optionally specify the pre-
        calculated mean of the sample (or an a priori known population mean)
        when calculating the variance and standard deviation[18].


Design Decisions Of The Module

    My intention is to start small and grow the library as needed, rather than
    try to include everything from the start. Consequently, the current
    reference implementation includes only a small number of functions: mean,
    variance, standard deviation, median, mode. (See the reference
    implementation for a full list.)

    I have aimed for the following design features:

    - Correctness over speed.  It is easier to speed up a correct but slow
      function than to correct a fast but buggy one.

    - Concentrate on data in sequences, allowing two-passes over the data,
      rather than potentially compromise on accuracy for the sake of a one-pass
      algorithm.  Functions expect data will be passed as a list or other
      sequence; if given an iterator, they may internally convert to a list.

    - Functions should, as much as possible, honour any type of numeric data.
      E.g. the mean of a list of Decimals should be a Decimal, not a float.
      When this is not possible, treat float as the "lowest common data type".

    - Although functions support data sets of floats, Decimals or Fractions,
      there is no guarantee that *mixed* data sets will be supported. (But on
      the other hand, they aren't explicitly rejected either.)

    - Plenty of documentation, aimed at readers who understand the basic
      concepts but may not know (for example) which variance they should use
      (population or sample?). Mathematicians and statisticians have a terrible
      habit of being inconsistent with both notation and terminology[19], and
      having spent many hours making sense of the contradictory/confusing
      definitions in use, it is only fair that I do my best to clarify rather
      than obfuscate the topic.

    - But avoid going into tedious[20] mathematical detail.


API

    The initial version of the library will provide univariate (single
    variable) statistics functions.  The general API will be based on a
    functional model ``function(data, ...) -> result``, where ``data``
    is a mandatory iterable of (usually) numeric data.

    The author expects that lists will be the most common data type used,
    but any iterable type should be acceptable.  Where necessary, functions
    may convert to lists internally.  Where possible, functions are
    expected to conserve the type of the data values, for example, the mean
    of a list of Decimals should be a Decimal rather than float.


    Calculating mean, median and mode

        The ``mean``, ``median*`` and ``mode`` functions take a single
        mandatory argument and return the appropriate statistic, e.g.:

            >>> mean([1, 2, 3])
            2.0

        Functions provided are:

            * mean(data) -> arithmetic mean of data.

            * median(data) -> median (middle value) of data, taking the
              average of the two middle values when there are an even
              number of values.

            * median_high(data) -> high median of data, taking the
              larger of the two middle values when the number of items
              is even.

            * median_low(data) -> low median of data, taking the smaller
              of the two middle values when the number of items is even.

            * median_grouped(data, interval=1) -> 50th percentile of
              grouped data, using interpolation.

            * mode(data) -> most common data point.

        ``mode`` is the sole exception to the rule that the data argument
        must be numeric.  It will also accept an iterable of nominal data,
        such as strings.


    Calculating variance and standard deviation

        In order to be similar to scientific calculators, the statistics
        module will include separate functions for population and sample
        variance and standard deviation.  All four functions have similar
        signatures, with a single mandatory argument, an iterable of
        numeric data, e.g.:

            >>> variance([1, 2, 2, 2, 3])
            0.5

        All four functions also accept a second, optional, argument, the
        mean of the data.  This is modelled on a similar API provided by
        the GNU Scientific Library[18].  There are three use-cases for
        using this argument, in no particular order:

            1)  The value of the mean is known *a priori*.

            2)  You have already calculated the mean, and wish to avoid
                calculating it again.

            3)  You wish to (ab)use the variance functions to calculate
                the second moment about some given point other than the
                mean.

        In each case, it is the caller's responsibility to ensure that
        given argument is meaningful.

        Functions provided are:

            * variance(data, xbar=None) -> sample variance of data,
              optionally using xbar as the sample mean.

            * stdev(data, xbar=None) -> sample standard deviation of
              data, optionally using xbar as the sample mean.

            * pvariance(data, mu=None) -> population variance of data,
              optionally using mu as the population mean.

            * pstdev(data, mu=None) -> population standard deviation of
              data, optionally using mu as the population mean.

    Other functions

        There is one other public function:

            * sum(data, start=0) -> high-precision sum of numeric data.


Specification

    As the proposed reference implementation is in pure Python,
    other Python implementations can easily make use of the module
    unchanged, or adapt it as they see fit.


What Should Be The Name Of The Module?

    This will be a top-level module "statistics".

    There was some interest in turning math into a package, and making this a
    sub-module of math, but the general consensus eventually agreed on a
    top-level module.  Other potential but rejected names included "stats" (too
    much risk of confusion with existing "stat" module), and "statslib"
    (described as "too C-like").


Previous Discussions

    This proposal has been previously discussed here[21].


Frequently Asked Questions

    Q: Shouldn't this module spend time on PyPI before being considered for
       the standard library?

    A: Older versions of this module have been available on PyPI[22] since
       2010. Being much simpler than numpy, it does not require many years of
       external development.

    Q: Does the standard library really need yet another version of ``sum``?

    A: This proved to be the most controversial part of the reference
       implementation.  In one sense, clearly three sums is two too many.  But
       in another sense, yes.  The reasons why the two existing versions are
       unsuitable are described here[23] but the short summary is:

       - the built-in sum can lose precision with floats;

       - the built-in sum accepts any non-numeric data type that supports
         the + operator, apart from strings and bytes;

       - math.fsum is high-precision, but coerces all arguments to float.

       There is some interest in "fixing" one or the other of the existing
       sums. If this occurs before 3.4 feature-freeze, the decision to keep
       statistics.sum can be re-considered.

    Q: Will this module be backported to older versions of Python?

    A: The module currently targets 3.3, and I will make it available on PyPI
       for 3.3 for the foreseeable future. Backporting to older versions of
       the 3.x series is likely (but not yet decided). Backporting to 2.7 is
       less likely but not ruled out.

    Q: Is this supposed to replace numpy?

    A: No. While it is likely to grow over the years (see open issues below)
       it is not aimed to replace, or even compete directly with, numpy. Numpy
       is a full-featured numeric library aimed at professionals, the nuclear
       reactor of numeric libraries in the Python ecosystem. This is just a
       battery, as in "batteries included", and is aimed at an intermediate
       level somewhere between "use numpy" and "roll your own version".


Future Work

    - At this stage, I am unsure of the best API for multivariate statistical
      functions such as linear regression, correlation coefficient, and
      covariance. Possible APIs include:

        * Separate arguments for x and y data:
          function([x0, x1, ...], [y0, y1, ...])

        * A single argument for (x, y) data:
          function([(x0, y0), (x1, y1), ...])

          This API is preferred by GvR[24].

        * Selecting arbitrary columns from a 2D array:
          function([[a0, x0, y0, z0], [a1, x1, y1, z1], ...], x=1, y=2)

        * Some combination of the above.

      In the absence of a consensus of preferred API for multivariate stats,
      I will defer including such multivariate functions until Python 3.5.

    - Likewise, functions for calculating probability of random variables and
      inference testing (e.g. Student's t-test) will be deferred until 3.5.

    - There is considerable interest in including one-pass functions that can
      calculate multiple statistics from data in iterator form, without having
      to convert to a list. The experimental "stats" package on PyPI includes
      co-routine versions of statistics functions. Including these will be
      deferred to 3.5.


References

    [1] http://mail.python.org/pipermail/python-dev/2010-October/104721.html

    [2] http://support.casio.com/pdf/004/CP330PLUSver310_Soft_E.pdf

    [3] Gnumeric:
            https://projects.gnome.org/gnumeric/functions.shtml

        LibreOffice:
            https://help.libreoffice.org/Calc/Statistical_Functions_Part_One
            https://help.libreoffice.org/Calc/Statistical_Functions_Part_Two
            https://help.libreoffice.org/Calc/Statistical_Functions_Part_Three
            https://help.libreoffice.org/Calc/Statistical_Functions_Part_Four
            https://help.libreoffice.org/Calc/Statistical_Functions_Part_Five

    [4] Scipy: http://scipy-central.org/
        Numpy: http://www.numpy.org/

    [5] http://wiki.scipy.org/Numpy_Functions_by_Category

    [6] Tested with numpy 1.6.1 and Python 2.7.

    [7] http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/09/26/comparing-three-methods-of-computing-standard-deviation/

    [8] http://rosettacode.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

    [9] https://bitbucket.org/larsyencken/simplestats/src/c42e048a6625/src/basic.py

    [10] http://stackoverflow.com/questions/2341340/calculate-mean-and-variance-with-one-iteration

    [11] http://www.r-project.org/

    [12] http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/system.linq.enumerable.average.aspx

    [13] https://www.bcg.wisc.edu/webteam/support/ruby/standard_deviation

    [14] http://ruby-statsample.rubyforge.org/

    [15] http://www.php.net/manual/en/ref.stats.php

    [16] http://www.ayton.id.au/gary/it/Delphi/D_maths.htm#Delphi%20Statistical%20functions.

    [17] http://www.gnu.org/software/gsl/manual/html_node/Statistics.html

    [18] http://www.gnu.org/software/gsl/manual/html_node/Mean-and-standard-deviation-and-variance.html

    [19] http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Skewness.html

    [20] At least, tedious to those who don't like this sort of thing.

    [21] http://mail.python.org/pipermail/python-ideas/2011-September/011524.html

    [22] https://pypi.python.org/pypi/stats/

    [23] http://mail.python.org/pipermail/python-ideas/2013-August/022630.html

    [24] https://mail.python.org/pipermail/python-dev/2013-September/128429.html


Copyright

    This document has been placed in the public domain.



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